The Singularity and Global Warming

[Cross-posted from Numinous Nonsense]

While I take global warming very seriously, and am committed to taking specific actions to help prevent it, it’s interesting to consider the perspective of techno-enthusiast Ray Kurzweil, as his opinions and models for predicting the future tend to re-frame everything. From a question and answer piece published in the Washington Post this summer, in response to questions of global warming:

Columbia, Md.: I have been following your career with great interest since my office acquired one of your first reading machines. And I have been fascinated by the SINGULARITY IS NEAR. I am also impressed with Al Gore’s arguments that the global warming problem should be near the top of everyone’s agenda. He claims that climate scientists say we have only about ten years, absent a concerted effort and political will to solve the problem, before the planet has reached a point where it’s too late to prevent catastrophic consequences. Do you believe, given your arguments about progress acceleration, that these scientists are unduly pessimistic? Do you think that accelerated technology alone—even without political will to solve the problem—will save the planet?

Ray Kurzweil: None of the global warming discussions mention the word “nanotechnology.” Yet nanotechnology will eliminate the need for fossil fuels within 20 years. If we captured 1% of 1% of the sunlight (1 part in 10,000) we could meet 100% of our energy needs without ANY fossil fuels. We can’t do that today because the solar panels are too heavy, expensive, and inefficient. But there are new nanoengineered designs that are much more effective. Within five to six years, this technology will make a significant contribution. Within 20 years, it can provide all of our energy needs. The discussions talk about current trends continuing for the next century as if nothing is going to change. I think global warming is real but it has been modest thus far - 1 degree f. in 100 years. It would be concern if that continued or accelerated for a long period of time, but that’s not going to happen. And it’s not just environmental concern that will drive this, the $2 trillion we spend on energy is providing plenty of economic incentive. I don’t see any disasters occuring in the next 10 years from this. However, I AM concerned about other environment issues. There are other reasons to want to move quickly away from fossil fuels including environmental pollution at every step and the geopolitical instability it causes.

So this argument would seem to support C4’s seeing global warming *as if* it will be a problem.  It must also be noted that while I appreciate Kurzweil’s perspective, I never lay my hat on any of his predictions.